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  • Climate change and biodiversity: Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica

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The Annual Biology Conference at the University of Canterbury is a showcase of postgraduate student research in Biological Sciences, providing an opportunity for students to present their findings to colleagues, peers, and the wider scientific community.

As a sponsor, Lab Supply awarded prizes for two categories: Most innovative research (presentation) and 1st PhD paper (publication).  Gabrielle Koerich is the winner of the 1st PhD paper (publication). 

Her research is focussed on developing better models for forecasting the future of life in Antarctica, fundamental to guiding the effective protection of biodiversity in the region.

However, challenges hampering ecological forecasts elsewhere in the world are amplified in Antarctica, where existing biophysical data is sparse because of the logistical challenges of sampling in the region. Gabrielle is researching the use of data integration frameworks to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by Antarctica’s remoteness, enabling more robust forecasts in both near- and long-term. 

We caught up with Gabrielle to ask about her research and her plans going forward.

What does winning the award mean to you?

Doing a PhD is a long journey, one with few wins along the way. Getting an award like this means that I’m on the right path, and it motivates me to continue exploring and tackling scientific questions that are of great interest to me. Also, publishing a paper is always fun because it allows me to share the work my collaborators and I do with the outside world. So, when other people see our work and get as excited about it as us (and give it recognition, such as an award!), it is incredibly rewarding for everyone involved.

How do you see your research creating impact in society and/or in the scientific world?

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our society right now. Understanding its impacts on biodiversity is of extreme importance because it can allow us to conserve species and ecosystems. One way of understanding how species are going to be affected is by using models that can draw relationships between the presence of species and climate. When we understand these relationships, we can try to predict, or forecast, how changes in climate are going to affect species distributions. 

But the problem with this, especially in Antarctica which is the focus of my PhD, is that we often lack data for species to generate these models. In my PhD, I’m applying different modelling frameworks that can mitigate some of these data problems to achieve better forecasts of Antarctica’s biodiversity under climate change. My research can thus inform conservation actions and management of Antarctica’s unique ecosystems. And this paper that I published, in particular, can also help scientists studying different ecosystems to deal with imperfect data.

What’s next? For you and your research. 

I’m halfway through my PhD, so I am now developing species distribution models of some key groups in Antarctica. The plan is for me to finish my PhD in July 2024, which means that I’m currently at the zenith of my research. 

I’m really looking forward to exploring the results of my models. I love that my PhD can possibly inform policies and management strategies in Antarctica, and I hope that I can continue doing research with real world applications after I finish my PhD.

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